9 to 11 is the optimal age for a Grand National winner.
TIPS FOR THE 2016 GRAND NATIONAL
We have plenty of tips for the big race…
Who Will Win?
Who will win the 2016 Crabbies Grand National? It’s the question we’re all asking, and without the aid of a crystal ball or a time machine we’re all forced to study the form, statistics and trends to help us find the winner.
Last year I predicted big runs from Night In Milan and Alvarado, along with Chance Du Roy and Soll, all four of whom actually finished the race but only Alvarado made it into the money in fourth place.
Grand National winners, and those who place, generally fall into certain trends. I look at those trends and rule out those who don’t quite fit the criteria although I always tip one or two crazy outsiders who have the potential to defy the odds.
You don’t have to follow our tips, below you can see which horses other pundits are tipping for the big race.
Sir Des Champs
The Last Samuri
Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That’s not to say that finding the winner is easy, the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends we can discount runners who don’t fit into the historical winners profile. Usually this leaves use with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses who have the ‘right stuff’ to win at Aintree.
Use the tabs above to find out what you should be looking for.
The first criteria is the Runners age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than nine or older than 11 years of age. In the last 20 years 17 of the winners have come from that age group. *I have broken my own rule this year by tipped 8 year old The Last Samuri, lets hope I don’t regret it!
The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race, good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability, historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only three horses in the last 20 years have managed it, they were Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Don’t Push It in 2010.
In fact, 7 of the last 10 winners have weighed less than 11-01 so bare that in mind when you’re trying to reduce your selections.
It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.
When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been preforming for the last couple of seasons. Those who constantly fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be taken out of the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years prior to his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career.
Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately prior to the National. So it was no surprise when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn’t budge! A huge disappointed for all his backers and with just a little research you can avoid backing weaker prospects like him.